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ALGORITHMIC NASDAQ‑100 × GOLD LIVE

Nasdaq × Gold Rotation

An algorithmic strategy that has outperformed the Nasdaq across four decades of backtesting, rotating between leveraged Nasdaq‑100 and Gold and scaling its exposure to market volatility.

+36.8%
Live return
8
Months live
-33.4%
Live max drawdown
+43.6%
Model CAGR (41y)
1.03
Model Sharpe (41y)
Data updated 2026-09-16
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Growth of $100

What $100 would have become. The dashed line marks the live-trading start.

Monthly returns (%)

Plain rows are the backtested model; LIVE rows are live trading. Live won't match the model exactly: real costs, execution timing, and a gradual start. The green marker shows the month live trading began.

How it works

The strategy rotates between leveraged Nasdaq-100 exposure and leveraged Gold, following a fixed, rules-based framework. Signals are computed daily after the US close and executed automatically the next day, with no discretion.

Trend following
While the Nasdaq holds a medium-term uptrend, the portfolio maintains leveraged Nasdaq exposure, balanced with gold. When that trend breaks down, it rotates fully into gold. One exception: a macro filter can keep the position in place while the wider economy still looks healthy, so the strategy does not sell out on a passing scare. In that case the protective stop below becomes the only exit.
Volatility scaling
When market volatility rises, Nasdaq exposure is scaled down automatically to reduce risk as conditions deteriorate. What comes out of the Nasdaq moves to the defensive side of the portfolio, it is not left uninvested.
Protective stop
A trailing stop watches the whole portfolio. As soon as its value drops clearly below its own high point, the strategy leaves the Nasdaq and takes shelter, without waiting for the trend to confirm.
Cash buffer
Gold is the usual shelter, but it is not always calm. When gold itself turns choppy, a large part of that defensive side is parked in cash rather than invested. This is why the live portfolio sometimes shows a slice sitting in cash, and it is deliberate.

The exact parameters are the result of years of research and out-of-sample testing, and remain proprietary.

Important disclaimers

Backtest vs live. Left of the dashed line, the curve is a simulation on historical index data with cost assumptions. It is a model, not a track record. Right of the dashed line is live trading, and live results differ from the model and will keep differing.

Leverage risk. This strategy uses leveraged instruments. They can lose value rapidly, including in sideways markets (volatility decay). The model's worst historical drawdown reached about -58%. You can lose a substantial part of your investment.

Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Copying any trader involves risk. Do your own research and never invest money you cannot afford to lose.